WINTER 2012
QUANTITATIVE
METHODS FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
Instructor: Dr.
Eric R. Dodge
Office:
Phone: office: x7367
E-mail: dodge@hanover.edu
Web Page: http://vault.hanover.edu/~dodge/Statistics/welcome2002.htm
Office Hours: M, W, F: 10:00
a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
M: noon – 1:00 p.m.
Or
by appointment
Text: Anderson, Sweeney, and
Williams, Statistics for Business and Economics; 10th
edition.
Course
Overview:
“Introduction
to the quantitative methods used in business and economics with an emphasis on
their application. Methods studied include
confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, correlation analysis and simple
linear regression.”[1]
This course is an introduction to the basic methods,
applications, and interpretations of statistics. An important thing to understand is that
while this is a course numbered as 200-level, you may be working harder in this
course than in many courses numbered 300-level. While most statistical tools apply to any
field, this course will focus on the use of statistical methods in business and
economics. Successful completion of this
course will provide the student with a solid understanding of basic statistics,
the ability to analyze statistical results and to synthesize multi-step
procedures. By the end of the semester
you will be able to evaluate a problem and determine the most efficient way in
which to solve it as well as the ability to answer the most important
question: “Yeah, but what does it mean?” Successful completion of this course will
more than prepare you for Econometrics and/or Corporate Finance.
Instructor’s
Course Objectives and Outcomes:
·
The mastery of
graphical, tabular and numerical methods of describing statistical data.
·
To apply
descriptive statistics to probability distributions. These distributions allow businesses to
assign probabilities to a number of possible outcomes.
·
To explore
methods of gathering samples from a larger population.
·
To develop null
and alternative hypotheses for the purposes of hypothesis testing and use
sampling distributions to draw statistical inference for the population.
·
To introduce the
simple linear regression model that allows us to test for relationships between
two or more variables. This model is
extended to introductory multiple regression techniques.
Departmental
Objectives for this Course:
Instructor’s Expectations:
My course objectives are set
very high and my use of the word “mastery” is deliberate and correlates to the
way in which I grade assignments. Points,
on any part of any assignment, are earned based upon a standard of
perfection. If on a 10-point assignment,
your response is perfect in every way, you have earned 10 points and I am
pleased to acknowledge your excellence.
If it is not, you have earned a fraction of those 10 points and
relatively weak responses receive lower and lower fractions. Students who have mastered techniques and/or
concepts find that they consistently receive perfect scores, or at least very
high fractions of the possible points.
Each student in this class
has the potential to achieve an “A” grade, but mastery of anything, does not
come without hard work. As you complete
assignments and study the material, keep in mind that the quality of your work
will be judged with an expectation of mastery, not of mediocrity. You are likely to find that a level of work
that is just good enough to get by in other courses will not suffice in this
course.
Practice Problems:
The best way to learn how to
apply statistical techniques to actual data is to get into the habit of
tackling practice problems. There are
many throughout each chapter of the book and the answers are given to more than
half. Keep your completed problems in
your class notebook. If I sense that you
are not doing some of these on your own, I will begin to randomly collect
them. If you have no current problems
to submit, your grade will be lowered by up to 5 points each time.
Vault Resources:
I have constructed a page in
my vault account (see address above) that includes Power Point presentations of
each section of material, past exams and past research projects, lab
assignments, and downloadable data.
These are designed to improve your understanding and enable you to work
without being constrained by our four classroom hours every week. These outlines are not a substitute
for reading the text. Because my lecture
outlines will be available on the page, I will not usually formally lecture
over most new material. Prior to a
given class session, I expect you to read the corresponding pages of the text,
view the presentation and (as highly recommended optional practice) attempt the
Self-Test problems in the text. During
the next class hour, I will begin by asking if anyone needs clarification on
the assigned material. After addressing
your questions, I will elaborate on that material through the use of specific examples
and/or case studies. If you have not
done the assigned reading or practiced some self-test problems, our class hours
will be much less productive for you. To
address important economic or business problems, we will use data from the
outside world, plus data collected from our own campus survey. Most of this data will also be available on
the vault page or on a student disk that may accompany your textbook.
Power Point
Presentations:
I have attempted to summarize and outline the
important concepts for every chapter that I plan to cover. They are designed
to complement the textbook, not replace it.
Some of the presentations have links to other sites of historical
interest, or simulations that illustrate a theoretical concept. View the presentation, save it, print it out
for your notebook, or all of the above.
A Note
Regarding Technology:
Obviously the structure of this course relies upon
technology that sometimes fails. The vault
page for this course is obviously on a campus server. Although I do not anticipate difficulties, power
outages, system crashes, or overloaded email service may hinder your ability to
access materials and/or communicate with me.
Please be patient and flexible in these situations and let me know as soon
as something runs amok. Call me at home
if you don’t get a quick email response.
I’ll do my best to remedy the situation, and if assignments need to be
postponed, that can also be done.
Thanks!
Course Policies:
Email
Accounts:
Each student must have an operational electronic mail
account on campus. From my office, I
communicate more on the computer than on the phone, and I will often send out
more information regarding assignments or something I overlooked during class.
Attendance:
It is my experience that there
is a strong positive correlation between attendance and both knowledge gained
and academic success in this class.[2]
In fact, almost every single
student that has earned a grade below “C-“ has earned that grade because of
poor attendance. Thus my advice to you is
to attend as many class sessions as possible.[3] In addition, please make every effort to
arrive to class on time. Being late to
class is rude and disruptive to me and also to the rest of the class.
Classroom Participation:
My courses involve a mixture
of traditional lecture, interactive simulations, in-class practice problems,
videos, and discussion. My goal is to
keep you involved, attentive and interested, but I realize that it is natural
for the human attention span to sometimes waver. When this occurs, please try to avoid the
following actions that your professor and your classmates might find rude and
disruptive. Consider this section of the
syllabus to be a first warning. If I
notice these, or others not on the list but equally rude and/or distracting, I
will promptly kick you out of the room.
·
Turning around in
your seat to check the clock. Do not
worry; I will rarely keep you over our allotted 50 minutes. If you feel you must check the time, wear a
watch, and discreetly check it.
·
Checking your
phone, or other device for text messages.
Turn them off and keep them in your bag or coat.
·
Flipping through
your weekly planner, unless our conversation is currently revolving around some
future due date or meeting time.
·
Grades: Your grades will be determined by the following:
1. Lab Assignments:
Approximately every other Tuesday you will be
responsible for a computer lab assignment. There are 4 labs and I will grade each of them
out of 100 points. After dropping your lowest lab score, your average score on
the 3 remaining labs will be worth a maximum of 100 points toward your course
grade. You may work as an individual or
in groups of no more than 3 to complete and submit the lab assignment. Several
days prior to when it is due, each lab assignment will be accessible on the web
page so that you may work on the lab at your own pace, at any time of the day
or night. You should be aware that these are usually quite difficult and are
not something to be completed the day before they are due. You will
be required to access data sets, save them and use Excel to perform the
computations.
What
to Submit:
a. You must submit your Excel files
via email attachments. See below.
b. You may email your typed summary, or
you may bring it to class.
Heavy
emphasis will be placed upon accurate interpretation and analysis of the output.
Interpretation is arguably the most important skill you learn in this
class, and thus it is weighted more heavily than simply crunching numbers or
constructing graphs. Please note: The quickest way to lose lab points is
to neglect the “Explain your results” portion of the lab. The rest of your
grade comes from inclusion of all relevant computations (charts, scatter plots,
probability formulas, regression results, etc.) and your ability to present accurate
results neatly, clearly and with writing appropriate to business reports.
Other Notes Regarding Lab Assignments:
E-mail
Attachments: Important!
When you submit an attached assignment and send it to
me, I save it in a folder for this class.
Based upon experience with email assignments, I end up with a folder
full of documents called something like “Lab 1.xls” and no other way of
determining who sent what! Thus, you need
to use the following format when saving documents so that it is possible for me
to identify your work.
1. You have just completed an assignment “Lab 1”
2. Save your Excel file as “Lab 1, firstinitiallastname”.
3. So I would call my file “Lab 1, edodge”
4. Simply putting the phrase “Lab 1, edodge” in the subject
of your email message is NOT the same as saving the file with that name.
Questions
about this? Just ask!!! The first incorrect submission of email
assignments will result in a warning; the second will result in a loss of 4
points. No exceptions.
2. Quizzes:
At the beginning of class, approximately every other
Tuesday, there will be a 15-25-minute quiz.
The quiz will be based upon reading and material covered, including
labs, since the previous quiz. Old
quizzes are available on the web page as a resource to test your
knowledge. Solutions are not provided,
but if you have attempted these old quizzes I can help you to check your
answers. The best way to practice for a quiz or exam is daily work on problems
throughout each chapter and diligent reading of the chapter. There are 5 quizzes, each is worth 25 points
and I will drop your lowest quiz grade, for a total of 100 possible
points. You should be aware that
these can be quite difficult and are not something to be taken lightly. You must remain current in your reading and
completion of practice problems!
3. Analytical Project:
In teams of two
or three students, you are required to write a short paper, worth 80
points, that uses statistics to analyze something in business and/or economics,
or a social issue from an economic perspective.
For example, you may test a hypothesis about returns of the NYSE,
compare two nations’ GDP growth rates, conduct a simple regression of interest
rates and the S&P 500, analyze labor market trends, or analyze a consumer
survey of your own design. I have provided
you with access to past projects so you’ll have a better idea of my
expectations for this assignment. Your
team must submit to me, in writing, a proposed topic in class by February 21st. This proposal absolutely must include
your data source and/or how you plan to measure important variables. If I believe your topic is beyond the scope
of this course, or that it is too closely related to recent projects, I may ask
you to revise your proposal or suggest that you find an alternate topic. Your team must then schedule a 15-20
minute conference with me during the week of March 4-8 to talk about your
proposal and where it is headed. Submission of an acceptable proposal is worth
up to 5 points toward the project. The conference with me is worth up to 5
points toward the project. The remainder
of the project will therefore be worth up to 70 points. The due date for your
final paper is April 10th by 10 a.m.. A formal list of criteria for this assignment,
including the proposal, is at the back of this syllabus.
4. Project Presentation:
Our class period on Thursday, April 11th
will be used for presentations. Each
group of analysts will conduct a 20-minute Power Point presentation of the
final project. The order of presentation
will be randomly selected and announced on Tuesday, April 9th. Presentations are worth a maximum of 20
points. More extensive details are
provided at the back of this syllabus.
5. Exams:
There will be 2 exams, each two hours in length, given
approximately 6 weeks apart. The exams
will be worth 150 points each, and will include material covered since the
previous exam. Questions will include
interpretative short answer, problems and conceptual questions. Many past exams are also available on the
course web page. Answers are not
provided, but I will gladly go over your solutions prior to the exam if you
bring them to office hours or schedule an appointment.
Exam dates are:
February
12th
April
4th
Other exam policies include:
-
To deter those
with wandering eyes, baseball hats will not be allowed on test day. If they must be worn for reasons of personal
hygiene (I'll allow this reason for the good of the many), the hats must be
worn backwards.
-
Calculators will
be necessary, and they will not be shared. I will not provide calculators to those who
forget. You cannot use your mobile phone
as a calculator.
-
Formula sheets
and probability tables will be provided.
-
No makeup exams
will be given.
-
Any student who
has earned at least 90% of available points before the final exam may choose to
“take the grade and run”, thereby skipping the final. I will not round up any totals.
6. Final Exam:
The final exam will be comprehensive, worth 150
points, and will be held on the date and time dictated by the registrar's
office. I will not allow students to take the exam at any other time. If you have prearranged travel plans that
conflict with the final exam, you may wish to drop the class now.
A Summary of
Points:
Labs: Average
of Top 3 @ 100 points each = 100
points
Quizzes: Top
4 @ 25 points each = 100
points
Project: 1 @ 80 points = 80
Presentation: 1
@ 20 points = 20
Exams: 2
@ 150 points each = 300
points
Final: 1
@ 150 points = 150
points
Total = 750 points
The Economics and Business Department has adopted the following
grade scale.
|
A+ 96.68% and up[4] |
B+ 86.68-89.99% |
C+ 76.68-79.99% |
D+ 66.67-69.99% |
|
A
93.33-96.67% |
B
83.33-86.67% |
C
73.33-76.67% |
D
63.33-66.67% |
|
A- 90.00-93.32% |
B- 80.00-83.32% |
C- 70.00-73.32% |
D- 60.00-63.32% |
Weekly
Course Schedule
|
Week |
Beginning |
|
Assignment/Exam |
|
1 |
7-Jan |
Ch.1-2 |
|
|
2 |
14-Jan |
|
Quiz 1 |
|
3 |
21-Jan |
|
Lab 1 |
|
4 |
28-Jan |
Ch. 4-5 |
Quiz 2 |
|
5 |
4-Feb |
Ch. 6 |
Lab 2 |
|
6 |
11-Feb |
Ch. 7 |
Exam 1 |
|
7 |
18-Feb |
Ch. 7-8; |
Quiz 3 Project proposal due February 21. |
|
|
25-Feb |
Winter Break |
|
|
8 |
4-Mar |
Ch. 8-9 Team conferences |
Lab 3 |
|
9 |
11-Mar |
Ch. 9-10 |
Quiz 4 |
|
10 |
18-Mar |
Ch. 10, 14 |
Lab 4 |
|
11 |
25-Mar |
Ch. 14-15 |
Quiz 5 |
|
12 |
1-Apr |
Ch. 15 |
Exam 2 |
|
13 |
8-Apr |
Class Wrap-Up and Presentations |
Project due April 10. Presentations April 11. |
|
14 |
15-Apr |
Final Exam Week |
|
Note: This
schedule is purposefully flexible enough to allow for extra time for some
material, or less if the class is moving forward at a quicker pace than
expected. If I choose to deviate from this
rough schedule, details will be forthcoming.
Guidelines for your Statistics Paper
The Proposal: 3
Steps for Success
Remember: You can earn up to 5 points toward your
final project for an outstanding proposal and another 5 points for a productive
group conference.
1. A proposal
begins with a series of at least 3 research questions that your paper, using
appropriate statistical analysis, intends to answer. For example, in the sample paper “Age,
Gender, Alcohol Use and Academic Performance: A Statistical Analysis” research
questions in the proposal might have been the following:
2. With the
research questions in mind, provide an overview of the techniques (up to this
point in the semester) that you intend to employ in answering those
questions. For example in the first
research question above you would say that you intend to calculate conditional
probabilities to show which gender is more likely to drink alcohol.
3. Finally, the
proposal must also include a specific source of data, including a copy
of at least one table or list of data.
For example you cannot simply say that you are going to get your data at
the website for the Census Bureau. You
must provide me with the exact website showing your data. If you are going to design your own survey,
you must provide me with a draft of the survey.
Keep in mind that survey design is not easy, so if you are going to
pursue this route, make sure that you start early and consult with me before
administering the survey.
Paper Format Guidelines:
1.
Your audience is a
reader who is familiar with as much statistics as we have covered in the
class. However, the reader may not be
familiar with the field of business or economics in which you are conducting
research.
2.
The paper is to
be typed, approximately 10 double-spaced pages, in 12 point, Times font, with 1” top and bottom
margins, and 1.25” margins on left/right sides.
3.
You may use data
from outside sources (BLS, Census, Statistical Abstract, e.g.) or you may
conduct your own data gathering efforts (market research survey, e.g.). In either case, when you submit your project
proposal the source of data must be explicitly made clear.
4.
Your paper must
be written at a level appropriate for academic research. Typos, sloppy editing, slang, mislabeled
graphs, and errors in citation or bibliographic format will be penalized. A trip to the
5.
Distinguish between your ideas and those of the author. Read and
understand the packet entitled "The Use of Source Materials", which
is given to all incoming students.
Plagiarism is tantamount to cheating on an exam and will be punished
according to the policies outlined above.
Appropriate bibliographic and citation styles may follow the MLA,
6. Strongly
Suggested Outline for your paper (Use my sample paper as a guide).
I. Introduction
1. States the objectives of your project (a series of
questions you address and why they are important!)
2. Summarizes the background of your chosen field
3. States the methods by which you gathered data
4. Summarizes the main findings
II. Summary
of the Data
1. Data
Sources.
2. Variable Definitions. Be very specific here. For example, are dollars in 100’s or 1000’s? Are
values real or nominal? How are dummy variables defined?
III. Summary
Statistics
1. Discuss important observations made from the summary
statistics
2. A table here is required.
IV. Your
Objectives Analyzed (at least 3 research questions)
1. Please separate each with clear text headings.
2. Make all graphs, tables, and charts, etc very clear.
3. Summarize the findings of each objective before moving
on.
V. Conclusion
7. Grading Criteria. 80% of your grade (56 out of 70 points) will
come from your statistical methods, observations and interpretations of
results. 20% of your grade (14 points)
will come from your ability to clearly write your paper. This includes your paragraph and sentence
structure, tables, charts and figures, grammar usage and spelling. I realize that some papers might be more
ambitious than other papers in the topics and methods that are being used. Thus I also consider degree of difficulty in
my assessment of the overall quality of the project. So a project/paper that attempts to perform
difficult analysis, and falls short due to the complexity of the techniques
will not be unduly penalized more than a paper that chose to address fairly
simple questions with simple analytical tools.
Note: all members of the team
will receive the same grade.
8. What to submit to me. Because of the nature of this project, I will
require, along with a hard copy of the paper, submission of your data (email or
disk) and output files. Projects submitted later than the due date are
penalized 6 points per hour late on a pro-rated basis.
Sample
papers can be found on the course website along with old exams.
SAMPLE: minor changes may be made prior to
presentations. You will be notified of
any.
Topic of Project:
Presenter(s):
Presentation Evaluation
Quality of presentation is important, but it will not
account for more than the quality of the analysis itself. The analytical skills are more important than
the presentational skills.
Analytical
Skills: 60%
1.
Did the presenter clearly present the justification
for the project itself and answer the question of “why is this important?”
support it with rationale and evidence?
2.
Did the presenter provide information with sufficient
depth and breadth? Accuracy in the
interpretation of results?
3.
Did the presenter consider a broad range of
perspectives? For example, is there more
than one way to see a particular problem or relationship?
4.
Did the presenter anticipate alternative
interpretations of the data and address those?
5.
Did the presenter discuss the applications of the
research from an economic/business point of view?
Presentation
Skills: 40%
1. Was the
presentation interesting? Did it grab,
and maintain, the audience’s attention?
2. Was the material logically and effectively presented
to enhance audience understanding of the material? (You may want to do a
handout of some of the data or some of the key results. However, if you do a detailed outline of your
presentation, the audience will not listen to what is said, since it is on
paper in front of them.)
3. Was there any presentational creativity; that is, did
the presentation appeal to a variety of learning styles? (For example, did you address auditory,
visual, and/or participatory modes of processing information? If you want to be really creative, you might
appeal to sense of smell or taste. You
might also want to consider use of music, simulations, photographs, or a short
clip of a video. Check the size of your
font for visibility. Feel free to be
innovative, but only insofar as it helps
reinforce the ideas you intend to communicate!
4.
Did the presenter use good communication skills:
Ø Was the presenter's voice interesting rather than
monotone?
Ø Was the tempo too fast or too slow?
Ø Did the presenter provide appropriate pauses to give
people time to think and reflect on what was said?
Ø Did the presenter have good eye contact with the
audience?
Ø Did the presenter utilize body movement to engage the
audience?
Ø Were the speaking style and grammar appropriate for an
academic audience?
Note: all
members of the team will receive the same grade.
Academic Honesty and Integrity:
There is perhaps no aspect of any professional
community more important than honesty and integrity. The academic community has long understood
that the free exchange of ideas fails to be sustainable if those ideas are
gained through dishonest means. You and I, as student and professor, are
integral to upholding the tradition of academic honesty that precedes us at
As the professor, I pledge to be honest, fair, and
impartial in the assignment and evaluation of your work. I pledge to treat you with respect and courtesy,
both in and out of the classroom. I
pledge to do my best to provide you with every opportunity to demonstrate your
mastery of the course material and to promptly respond to your questions.
With Sincere Respect,
___________________
Dr. Eric R. Dodge
As the student, I pledge that, unless explicitly
permitted by the professor, all submitted work in this course is my own. I pledge that, unless explicitly permitted by
the professor, I will not allow, either intentionally or knowingly, another
student to submit my work as his/her own.
I pledge that I will not use, or attempt to use, unauthorized
assistance, or materials of any kind, in the completion of assignments. I pledge that I will not take credit for any
team project unless I put forth a fair and significant effort toward the
completion of that project. I have read
and understand the section of the Hanover College Catalog that applies to
academic dishonesty. In addition to the
above actions, I understand that failure to immediately report any violations
of this honor code is itself an instance of academic dishonesty.
I understand that instances of academic dishonesty
will be penalized with a score of zero points on the assignment, and a maximum
grade of “D” in the course. My signature
below signifies my agreement to the above.
Sincerely,
___________________
Your name
[1] Source: Hanover College Catalog. Prerequisite: EC 113 or 114.
[2] David Romer (Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1993) finds that a student with an average GPA, who completed all assigned problem sets, and had perfect attendance, received an entire grade higher than the same student who attended only 25% of the classes.
[3] I reserve the right to alter my attendance policy on a case-by-case basis.
[4] Technically I can’t give you an A+ but I will rave about you in any future letters of recommendation!
[5] In
creating this pledge, I drew from the honor codes at both